India at risk of steel, aluminium dumping as US tariffs hit

India faces a risk of steel and aluminium dumping from Asian countries with US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs kicking in. The domestic copper industry though may remain undisturbed as local production is not able to meet the country’s demand.

According to Vinayak Vipul, partner-metals and mining at EY Parthenon India, the recent US steel tariffs have had a limited direct impact on metals sector in India. This is because India’s steel exports to the US remain under 100,000 metric tonnes annually, valued at $487.73 million in 2024.

“Secondary effects such as global price fluctuations and trade diversions require close monitoring,” Vipul said.

He said with the European Union exports to the US becoming unviable, “India may face steel dumping from China, South Korea and Japan”.

Rajamani Krishnamurti, president, Indian Stainless Steel Development Association (ISSDA), said countries facing US tariffs may redirect their exports to India, leading to an influx of low-cost imports.

Another spill over of Trump's tariffs is the possible dumping of chemicals from China. According to Khushbu Lakhotia, Director, India Ratings & Research, "The high tariff on China would lead to realignment of some of the supplies into other growing economies like India. This would lead to an increase in import threat for India, affecting the revenue and profitability of domestic companies." India has been facing a surge in imports from China over the past 1-2 years given the oversupply created owing to global slowdown leading to a decline in prices, she added.
The comprehensive tariffs announced by the US have ushered in a paradigm shift to the global economy according to Krishan Arora, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat. He said viewing these developments from a general equilibrium perspective is crucial. These measures affect all countries and trading partners. "This uncertainty is likely to depress overall economic growth as investment and expansion decisions are likely to get postponed," Arora said.

The influx of cheaper steel imports into India could hurt domestic producers and lower investment in the sector, according to Harsh Bansal, managing director at steel processing firm BMW Industries Limited.

“The government may need to consider protective measures to support the Indian steel industry while balancing the interests of steel-consuming industries,” he said.

Aluminium manufacturers said there’s been no dumping so far but they are cautious. “Global aluminium prices have softened since Trump imposed the tariffs in March…cross dumping has not started till now, but we are keeping a watch,” a senior executive at an Indian aluminium manufacturer told ET while adding that India imports aluminum scrap (to recycle) from the US in significant quantities. India is currently the world's largest importer of aluminium scrap while US is the biggest exporter for the same.

A fact sheet released by the White House said some goods will not be subject to reciprocal tariffs. These include steel and aluminium articles and autos and auto parts already subject to high tariffs. Besides, copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber articles are also exempt. In addition to these, bullion, energy and other minerals that are not available in the US are also exempt.

Besides reciprocal tariffs, President Trump will impose a 10% tariff on all countries, the White House said, adding this will take effect from April 5. Industry representatives said there will be no fresh impact on India’s metal exports to the US since the tariff barriers have been imposed uniformly for all countries.