The return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 has undoubtedly introduced new dynamics into the Asia-Pacific region. For the Philippines, a long-standing ally of the United States with strategic geopolitical significance, the second Trump administration poses both opportunities and challenges.

Trump’s government, staffed with hawkish China-sceptic policymakers, has demonstrated an assertive posture towards Beijing. Amid this environment, the Philippines’ strategic location has been thrust into sharp relief, exemplified by Manila receiving exemption from a global US defence aid freeze and the deployment of advanced American missile systems on its soil. Yet, despite these intensified military alignments, the Philippines must ensure that its security cooperation with Washington does not compromise its economically vital relationship with China.

Strategic relevance: Trump’s renewed emphasis on the Philippines 

Under Trump’s second presidency, the US government has exhibited a pronounced inclination towards confronting Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. One of the key manifestations of this approach has been the recognition of the Philippines’ strategic importance. Located at the crossroads of maritime trade routes, the Philippines occupies an indispensable position in any effective American strategy aimed at balancing China’s expansive ambitions in the South China Sea and deterring threats towards Taiwan. 

The recent exemption of the Philippines from President Trump’s global freeze on foreign military assistance underscores Manila’s renewed strategic significance to Washington. Despite Trump’s broad suspension of international aid as part of his “America First” strategy, the Philippines was notably given preferential treatment, receiving US$336 million earmarked specifically for modernising its armed forces and coast guard. This exemption reaffirms the Philippines’ “first-in-line” status among US partners and signals that Washington perceives Manila as essential to its regional security architecture. 

This preferential treatment is not merely symbolic. It directly translates into concrete military support, notably the deployment of the advanced Typhoon missile system on Philippine territory. Strategically, Typhoon missiles could deter China by offering long-range precision strikes that target key military assets within the South China Sea, like naval bases and missile launchers. Their deployment in the Philippines would enhance US and allied power projection, challenge China’s anti-access/area denial strategy, and threaten its military infrastructure, raising the risks and costs of Chinese aggression in the region. However, they also represent a clear escalation of US-China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific, risking drawing Manila deeper into great-power tensions. 

China–Philippines military tensions and regional diplomacy 

The deployment of US missile systems in the Philippines is symptomatic of broader, ongoing military tensions between Manila and Beijing. Recent incidents involving aggressive Chinese maneuvers against the Philippine coast guard and fishing vessels have heightened these tensions. Thus, Manila’s acceptance of advanced American military hardware is understandably motivated by its need to bolster national security and assert its legitimate sovereign claims in the West Philippine Sea. 

However, the escalation of military posturing and rhetoric must be carefully managed. The recent tenth meeting of the Bilateral Consultation Mechanism (BCM) between China and the Philippines in January 2025 underscored the necessity for dialogue. At this meeting, both countries reiterated the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the region, despite China lodging protests about Philippine activities, which Beijing characterised as provocative. Nevertheless, the reaffirmation by both sides to manage maritime disputes through diplomatic channels and practical cooperation in marine science, environmental protection, and coast guard activities suggests that there remains considerable room for diplomatic engagement. 

The imperative: protecting economic ties amid strategic rivalries 

Given the Philippines’ geographic proximity and economic interdependence with China it is crucial that Manila’s deepening strategic alignment with the United States does not derail its robust economic relationship with Beijing. China remains one of the Philippines’ largest trading partners, with bilateral trade and investment flows critical to Manila’s economic prosperity. Philippine exports to China, notably agricultural products, electronics, and mineral resources, remain significant drivers of economic growth and employment. 

The Trump administration’s assertive military posture must therefore be balanced carefully by Philippine policymakers. Manila’s diplomacy needs to clearly communicate to Beijing that its security cooperation with Washington, including US military deployments like the Typhon missiles, is defensive and aimed solely at protecting national sovereignty rather than posing an aggressive threat to China. 

Insights from China’s Two Sessions 2025 

China’s recent Two Sessions in March 2025 provide important insights into Beijing’s priorities. Chinese Premier Li Qiang outlined ambitious economic growth targets, emphasised technological innovation, and highlighted China’s commitment to maintaining regional stability and multilateral engagement. However, Li also explicitly identified the intensifying geopolitical environment, particularly the return of Trump and the resulting escalation of US–China tensions, as sources of significant external pressure. 

Moreover, Foreign Minister Wang Yi expressed China’s willingness to engage constructively with regional neighbours, provided their policies do not align with American containment strategies. Wang’s statements underscored Beijing’s readiness to respond robustly to perceived provocations, particularly regarding foreign military deployments near its territory. This suggests that Manila’s hosting of US advanced missile systems could potentially trigger tougher Chinese responses in diplomatic or economic arenas if perceived as part of an encirclement strategy. 

Strategic imperatives for Philippine foreign policy 

To successfully navigate the turbulent geopolitics under Trump’s second term, Manila should clearly communicate to Beijing that its military cooperation with the US is purely defensive, aimed at protecting national sovereignty and maritime rights, not as an offensive alignment against China. Regular diplomatic engagements, such as the continuation and enhancement of the BCM, will be crucial in maintaining open communication channels between Manila and Beijing. 

The Philippines should also actively diversify its foreign partnerships beyond the US–China binary. Strengthened security and economic cooperation with regional powers such as Japan, Australia, South Korea, India, and ASEAN neighbours can help Manila mitigate excessive dependence on either Washington or Beijing. The recent Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) signed with Japan and the trilateral security dialogue involving Japan, the Philippines, and the US (JAPHUS) present viable avenues for diversification. 

Finally, Manila must pursue a proactive economic diplomacy strategy to safeguard its booming trade and investment ties with China. This involves reassuring Chinese investors and businesses that bilateral economic relations will remain insulated from broader geopolitical tensions while continuing to welcome Chinese participation in infrastructure projects, tourism, and trade initiatives. 

Conclusion 

Under the second Trump administration the Philippines finds itself in a precarious yet critical position, balancing its strategic interests and economic imperatives. While Manila’s recent exemption from the US foreign aid freeze and the deployment of US Typhon missiles underscore its renewed strategic significance in American regional policy, Philippine policymakers must ensure that deepening defence cooperation with Washington does not compromise Manila’s economically vital relationship with China. 

The path ahead requires delicate diplomacy and strategic foresight. The Philippines can steer the challenging geopolitics of Trump’s second term by clearly defining its security policies, maintaining robust diplomatic engagement with Beijing, and actively diversifying its international partnerships. This careful balance will enable Manila to protect its national interests, safeguard regional stability, and ensure sustainable economic prosperity in an increasingly uncertain Asia-Pacific landscape. 

Severo C. Madrona, Jr., PhD, is a Professorial Lecturer at the Department of History, Ateneo de Manila University; the National College of Public Administration and Governance, University of the Philippines-Diliman (UP-NCPAG); the Ramon V. del Rosario College of Business, De La Salle University Manila; and the School of Diplomacy and Governance, De La Salle-College of St. Benilde.

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