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3 thoughts: New Mexico 79, SDSU 75 ... on crunch time, expectations & Air Force

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Three thoughts on San Diego State’s 79-75 loss at New Mexico on Saturday:

1. Crunched time

Maybe we just got spoiled when SDSU was rolling off 164 straight wins when leading with five minutes to go. Maybe we just assumed that was normal.

Because it isn’t, certainly not now.

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The streak ended against Boise State at Viejas Arena on Feb. 27, 2016, when the Aztecs missed seven straight free throws and blew a nine-point lead with just over a minute to go.

Last season, they lost three games when leading at the five-minute mark. This season: four already and the last three straight, as utterly incomprehensible as that is to digest.

Over the last two years, they’re 3-14 in games decided by six points or less.

Before the season, coach Brian Dutcher was asked whether his team would buck the trend in close games.

“Until you do it, you don’t know,” Dutcher said. “There’s a certain mental aspect. When we were on that streak where we won (164) games when leading with five minutes to go, we just thought we were going to win. Once we started dropping a few, then your confidence gets a little shaken and you’re not quite as confident. Maybe you’ve got to shake that.”

We know now: They haven’t.

The numbers are ugly. In the final five minutes of the last three games, the Aztecs are shooting 6 of 22 overall (27.3 percent), 2 of 12 behind the 3-point arc and 3 of 6 from the line.

In all three games, Devin Watson had shots in the final 20 seconds to tie. Missed all three.

“I love all the shots we’ve gotten,” Dutcher said. “As a coach, I’m not looking at tape saying: ‘That’s a bad one, that’s a good one, that’s an OK one.’ I’ve liked the shots we’ve gotten with the game on the line. They’ve just got to go in. They go in against Gonzaga, and everybody is happy, because you make them. Then when they don’t go in and you lose, and everybody thinks it’s a mile of difference between the two games.

“It’s one or two possessions, one or two shots. That makes you either very happy or very sad.”

Whether you subscribe to the theory that they’re getting good looks and they’re just not dropping, or you think there are deeper issues with SDSU’s crunch-time offense, perhaps a bigger problem lies at the other end of the floor.

Over the final five minutes of the three losses, their opponents are shooting 8 of 13 overall (61.5 percent), a staggering 6 of 7 on 3s and 18 of 21 from the line.

The result: The Aztecs were outscored a combined 40-17.

Extrapolate that over a 40-minute game, and the final score is 107-45.

2. Letting it rip

Part of SDSU’s late-game meltdowns is tactical and technical, players not executing.

Part, though, might be mental.

The game pitted the Mountain West programs with the most conference men’s basketball titles, but they’re teams with different trajectories and, importantly, expectations.

New Mexico’s program imploded last spring, announcing Craig Neal would return as coach, then firing him a few weeks later. Paul Weir was finally hired away from New Mexico State, and the roster was gutted. Now Weir has banished two more players, leaving him with eight scholarship guys and a walk-on – the “Nasty Nine,” they’re called.

The Lobos were picked to finish ninth in the Mountain West preseason media poll, then went 5-8 in the nonconference that included a 104-96 home loss to Tennessee Tech.

So what do they have to lose? The Nasty Nine can, and do, play free and loose. Unencumbered. They let it rip. No pressure. Everything is gravy.

Guard Antino Jackson was asked about his game-winning jumper with 22 seconds left. “I wasn’t thinking about nothing,” he said. “I knew when I got space, I was going to shoot the ball, and that’s what I did.”

If he missed, so what?

Meanwhile, the other team Saturday was once again crumbling under enormous expectations elevated by six straight years of NCAA Tournament appearances and a roster of highly-touted recruits. You could almost feel the tension, the anxiety, the fear of bungling yet another late lead.

“To juggle all that talent takes an incredible management approach,” Weir said. “You’ve got all-conference guys coming off the bench. I’ve never been in that spot. I don’t even know if I envy it, to be honest with you.

“I’m very fortunate not to have to deal with that. I start guys based on (defensive) deflections. I don’t start guys based on Rivals ranking or anything else. Maybe down the road as our recruiting changes and we get players in here, maybe I’ll have to deal with the same thing. But as of right now, these kids have been awesome about embracing the things I want them to be – just tough, play hard, give it everything you’ve got.”

3. Air Farce

Not a good look for Air Force or the Mountain West:

On the day that the Falcons scrapped all athletic events due to the federal government shutdown, including men’s and women’s basketball games against Fresno State, a color guard unit from Kirtland Air Force Base in Albuquerque marched to center court for the anthem before SDSU’s game at New Mexico.

You can’t have it both ways.

Air Force Academy officials explained that the funding mechanisms for their athletic programs are such that the spigot closes during when the government does and, unlike previous shutdowns, they were unable to find work-around solutions. Accordingly, public affairs officer Lt. Col. Allen Herritage told the Colorado Springs Gazette: “We’ve had to cancel activities not directly related to national defense.”

But sending four uniformed Air Force personnel to a basketball arena for anthem ceremonies is directly related to national defense?

Army and Navy continued athletic events Saturday because their athletic departments are funded differently. And Air Force football coaches are allowed to travel for recruiting with signing day looming in a few weeks because booster money is used. That may all be true, but it doesn’t ease the hypocritical impression.

And what about the Fresno State men’s basketball team, which had travelled to Colorado Springs for Saturday’s game and, as a state university, is largely funded by tax dollars? If the game is rescheduled, who’s paying for that trip?

“We came all the way over here already,” Fresno State coach Rodney Terry told the Fresno Bee. “It’s not the easiest trip to get to.”

This is where the Mountain West needs to step in.

It’s simple: Air Force should forfeit every game it doesn’t play – no different than if another school in the conference refuses to play. Or, if it insists on rescheduling them, the Mountain West reimburses the visiting team’s travel expenses out of Air Force’s annual share of conference TV money.

In case you’re wondering: SDSU is scheduled to host Air Force in men’s basketball Feb. 3 and play there Feb. 21.

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mark.zeigler@sduniontribune.com; Twitter: @sdutzeigler

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