Three big trends in the world of work

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This was published 6 years ago

Three big trends in the world of work

By Matt Wade

Will smart machines and artificial intelligence leave millions without a job? It's a big question for sure. But amid the angst over job-killing robots let's not overlook the things we already know are reshaping the world of work. Over the past few weeks, new figures from the 2016 census and analysis by the Reserve Bank have drawn attention to some crucial trends. Here are three that caught my attention:

The healthcare powerhouse

For much of the post-war era manufacturing was Australia's dominant employer.

Now another industry has emerged to provide a similar share of the nation's jobs as manufacturing did in the mid-1990s – healthcare.

Healthcare employment is dominated by women.

Healthcare employment is dominated by women.Credit: Peter Braig

Sometime around 2010 the "healthcare and social assistance" sector – which includes hospitals, medical and allied health services, aged care and a range of other social services – quietly assumed the mantle of Australia's biggest employer.

Census data released last month showed it is now entrenched as Australia's jobs powerhouse. Healthcare and social assistance registered the fastest employment growth of Australia's 19 major industry sectors between 2011 and 2016. With a workforce of 1.35 million healthcare and social assistance now accounts for one in every eight Australian jobs.

Terry Rawnsley, an economist with the consultancy SGS Economics and Planning, sees some parallels between the economic roles played by healthcare and manufacturing. Both sectors, for example, have a blend of high and lower skill workers.

"In some ways healthcare and social assistance is becoming the manufacturing of the 21st century," said Rawnsley. "You have high-end health care jobs like doctors and surgeons but you also have an army of lower skill workers like orderlies, cleaners and so on. Aged-care services also employ a large number of workers at a lower skill level."

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There are also major differences, of course, the most obvious being gender. Unlike manufacturing, healthcare employment is dominated by women – almost eight in 10 workers in the sector are females.

The growth of healthcare and social assistance is no surprise. As societies become wealthier they tend to spend more on their health and physical welfare. The ageing of the population means demand for employment in the sector is bound to grow.

That's worth keeping in mind if you are considering career options.

The demise of early retirement

The Reserve Bank's assistant governor, Luci Ellis, drew attention to a crucial economic and social change in a speech last Wednesday.

"The trend to earlier retirement has abated," she observed.

The bank's analysis shows during the past 15 years the share of women aged between 60 and 64 with a job has more than doubled and the proportion of woman aged 65 and over in work has trebled.

This has helped push the overall workforce participation rate of women to an all-time high.

"Each generation of women participates in the labour force at a greater rate than the previous generation of women did at the same age," said Ellis.

The workforce participation of men aged over 60 also continues to climb.

The census showed the over-60s were more likely than other age groups to be farmers, caretakers, and bus or coach drivers.

The inner-city jobs boom

In many of the world's big cities employment growth has become increasingly concentrated in very small, well located areas. Sydney and Melbourne are no exception. Analysis of the latest census by Rawnsley shows the central business district and its immediate surrounds in both cities have experienced a marked increased in their share of city-wide employment over the past decade.

Most new jobs in these employment hubs have been in knowledge-based industries, especially finance and professional services.

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As globalisation and new technologies put some industries, notably manufacturing, under huge pressure, Australia's inner-city workforce has thrived on those same forces.

But the trend for jobs to "agglomerate" in prime locations poses some tricky policy challenges, especially for transport and housing.

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